The
awards season is over, for the most apart. Most of the nominees
are out there, excepting the Oscars, and we have an idea
how the critical "buzz" and enthusiasm for a lot of these
films and performances stand. There have been a few surprises,
and a few constants. So, without further ado, here are my
final Oscar predictions, with the predicted winners in italics.
BEST
PICTURE
Lord of the Rings: Return of the King
Mystic River
Cold Mountain
Lost in Translation
Seabiscuit
The
only questionable slots in this category are Cold Mountain
and Lost in Translation. Before the awards season
began, Cold Mountain had very strong buzz, while Sofia Coppola's
second film had very little. A slew of critical accolades
helped Lost in Translation's case, along with some Golden
Globe nominations, A DGA Nomination, and a whopping 8 BAFTA
Nominations. Cold Mountain's buzz has nearly plummeted,
as it has surprisingly garnered much fewer than expected
critical and other awards. The only reason I still think
it will be nominated is because this is Miramax's warhorse,
and their track record speaks for itself. Other possibilities
for a nomination are Master and Commander: The Far Side
of the World, In America, The Last Samurai,
and House of Sand and Fog.
As
for the winner, this is the least exciting contest in recent
memory. Peter Jackson's Return of the King has rolled
over the competition, and is definitely the film to beat.
Jackson has more than just the enthusiasm for the current
film going for him. He also has the conclusion of a trilogy
where all three films have been nominated for Best Picture,
and many, critic and consumer, consider to be one of the
best trilogies ever. This is Jackson's year and there will
be no upset.
BEST
ACTOR
Sean Penn, Mystic River
Ben Kingsley, House of Sand and Fog
Bill Murray, Lost in Translation
Jude Law, Cold Mountain
Johnny Depp, Pirates of the Carribean
Expect
Penn to be nominated for Mystic River, and not 21
Grams. I predict he will win, not only because of the relentless
acting buzz for Mystic River, but also because he gave two
award-worthy performances this year. While Mystic River
is the film he will be nominated for, he will be rewarded
for both performances. Penn, Kingsley and Murray are locks
at this point for nominations. Johnny Depp is the
audience favorite, and he has already received Golden Globe
and Screen Actors Guild nominations. He isn't quite a lock
yet, but is the closest thing. I expect Jude Law
to sneak in here, mostly as a result of the Miramax machine.
Peter Dinklage received a surprising SAG nomination
for The Station Agent, but he didn't receive a Golden Globe
nomination, whereas Law did, so I predict he will be left
out. There is an outside chance that Russell Crowe,
Paul Giamatti, or Tom Cruise could upset,
but I don't think they will.
BEST
ACTRESS
Charlize Theron, Monster
Diane Keaton, Something's Gotta Give
Naomi Watts, 21 Grams
Evan Rachel Wood, Thirteen
Jennifer Connelly, House of Sand and Fog
This
is the easiest of the acting categories to pick a winner,
simply because of the enthusiastic response to Charlize
Theron's performance. She has practically swept the
critical awards, and I expect her to do the same for the
Golden Globe and SAG as well. Many critics, including Roger
Ebert, are calling her performance one of the greatest
of all time. The Academy doesn't want a snub on their conscience
here, and they will reward her. Her only legitemate competition
for the award would be Keaton or Watts, but she is still
way ahead of the pack. Evan Rachel Wood received
both a Golden Globe and a SAG nomination, so I think it's
relatively safe to pencil here in here. As for Jennifer
Connelly, her place here is the least secure. It's really
a tossup between her and Nicole Kidman, with Patricia
Clarkson possibly sneaking in. But this year Clarkson
will be rewarded for Pieces of April, and Kidman
won last year, so I think Connelly will get the nod. She
wasn't nominated for a Golden Globe or an SAG, so this is
quite a bold prediction, but I think it will happen.
Coming
soon: Supporting, Screenwriting, Director, and Technical
Nominations.